daily preciousness

Thursday, February 13, 2003

terror (top ten)

This is chilling. My friend sent it to me right after he pointed out the presence of surface-to-air missiles scattered throughout the DC area. Yikes.

This is the creepy e-mail message from Odell Huff. As my pal Todd describes him, Odell is "one of our fair city's
most dashing, colorful, and brilliant gay Libertarians
(and such a party boy, too!)"

From: OdellnDC@aol.com

Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 13:37:15 EST

Subject: Odell's Top 10 Geopolitical Predictions

Odell’s Top 10 Geopolitical Predictions 2/11/03

Ok, maybe "predictions" is too strong of a word, we’ll call them "fears."

Don’t take it to court:

1. There is no chance Hussein will exile, so a US invasion of Iraq is

virtually certain.

2. The invasion will be a blitzkrieg, with hundreds and thousands of air bombings in the first days.

3. Hussein knows there is nothing he can do to stop the US bombings, so he will focus all of his capabilities towards attacking Israel. He is prepared and very willing to be martyred, and sacrifice his country, for the cause of the annihilation of Israel.

4. Israel has the absolute right to defend itself, and this time, the

willingness. The recent elections were a strong endorsement that Israel wants aggressive retaliation. I believe that if Hussein attacks with biological or chemical weapons -- and if he has them, he will -- Israel will nuke Baghdad. In fact, this may be the plan: the US technological advantages are much reduced in urban warfare. Trying to take a resistant Baghdad with infantry would be bloody and feed momentum of war resistance here in the US.

However, if Israel nukes the city, we could just walk right in. The world will be outraged if tactical nukes are used no matter who does it, so it might as well be Israel since everyone hates them already anyway.

5. If Israel nukes Baghdad, there is a good chance the rest of the Arab world will unite in another effort to attack Israel. We all know who would win that conflict, so maybe we could have a Five Day War, and this time no land will be given back. "Visit Israel -- see the Pyramids!"

6. Simultaneous with a US invasion of Iraq, there will be multiple terrorist attacks in the US. The targets are those which are likely to have the greatest psychological and economic multiplier effect in making people scared enough to halt economic activity, which will bring the economy crashing. A school, mall, or major metro station suicide bombing could achieve this. A bug in the water would be good. A stadium bombing or shooting down a plane might kill a lot of people but would have minimal residual reverberations.

7. NATO is dissolving, as I’ve been predicting, balance is realigning. "Old Europe" is terrified of US military hegemony. They have good reason to be afraid. Throughout history what has mattered in Europe is balance of power.

Whenever one country developed hegemony -- and usually pushed its advantage by trying to take over everyone else -- the rest of Europe united to defeat the hegemon. All the treaties were designed to maintain a balance of power. The Cold War was a balance of power. To Europe, balance means stability, and a major hegemon, no matter how currently benign, means eventual war and probably someone trying to take over the world. We Americans might be smug in the stability of our benign democracy, but Europeans have no such confidence. Continental Europe will unite with Russia to create a balance against the American Empire, and US and British military imperialism.

Odell’s Tom Clancy Scenarios:

8. If there is a fourth major attack on Washington (following the Pentagon, anthrax and sniper attacks), martial law could be declared. Remember that Abraham Lincoln suspended the Writ of Habeas Corpus and arrested the Maryland State Legislature, so there is a precedent. If I had dictatorial aspirations, I would make sure, in the event of crisis, that Congress were safely sequestered, for its own protection. I would also make sure I put half of the House and half the Senate in a bunker in Virginia, and half the

House and half the Senate in a bunker in Maryland, and tell them they could leave when it’s safe. In the meantime, Congress would have no quorum, the Supreme Court would have no claimant, and the executive branch would have exclusive authority. Despite our confidence, there are many historical examples of republics going dictatorship, Rome and Germany being most relevant. The American Empire would be easier to achieve than you think.

9. The great wild card in all this is China. They have an irrational desire to possess Taiwan, like an obsessed ex-boyfriend. If there ever is an opportunity to invade Taiwan, this is it. The US will be fully engaged in

Afghanistan, fighting terrorism abroad, invading Iraq, and fighting terrorism at home. If China were to attack Taiwan, we would not have the capability to defend her, nor, I submit, the willingness. In the middle of all this, would we really be willing to take on China, which has 1.5 billion people, and ICBMs capable of striking the West Coast, just to defend Taiwan? After all, Hong Kong is fine, Taiwan could operate like that, so who cares? It is exactly because we have no interest in defending Taiwan under these circumstances that I think there is an excellent chance China will press this advantage. It will never have this opportunity again.

10. In short, if Bush invades Iraq, I am fearing/predicting World War III.


Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home